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Opposite Changes in Monsoon Precipitation and Low Pressure System Frequency in Response to Orographic Forcing

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic-scale disturbances that form along the quasi-stationary trough of the larger-scale South Asian summer monsoon, producing a large fraction of total monsoon precipitation. Here, we use an Earth system …

Influence of monsoon low pressure systems on South Asian disasters and implications for disaster prediction

Transient atmospheric vortices called monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) generate a large fraction of total rainfall over South Asia and often produce extreme precipitation. Here, we assess the influence of these storms on the occurrence of …

An upper bound for extreme temperatures over midlatitude land

Heatwaves damage societies worldwide and are intensifying with global warming. Several mechanistic drivers of heatwaves, such as atmospheric blocking and soil moisture-atmosphere feedback, are well-known for their ability to raise surface air …

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st …

Continental drift shifts tropical rainfall by altering radiation and ocean heat transport

Shifts in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) have great importance for weather, climate, and society. The ITCZ shifts have been extensively studied in current and future warmer climate; however, little is known for its …

Mechanisms and impacts of Earth system tipping elements

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such …

Monsoon depression amplification by horizontal shear and humidity gradients: a shallow water perspective

Transient, synoptic-scale vortices produce a large fraction of total rainfall in most monsoon regions and are often associated with extreme precipitation. However, the mechanism of their amplification remains a topic of active research. For monsoon …

Downwind control of oceanic air by land: the land wake and its sensitivity to CO2

Oceans are well-known to be directly altered by global climate forcings such as greenhouse gas changes, but how oceans are indirectly influenced by land and its response to such forcings remains less explored. Here, we assess the present-day and …

A theory for the response of tropical moist convection to mechanical orographic forcing

Spatial patterns of tropical rainfall are strongly influenced by mountains. Although theories for precipitation induced by convectively stable upslope ascent exist for the midlatitudes, these do not represent the interaction of moist convection with …

The unexpected oceanic peak in energy input to the atmosphere and its consequences for monsoon rainfall

Monsoons have historically been understood to be caused by the low thermal inertia of land, allowing more energy from summer insolation to be transferred to the overlying atmosphere than over adjacent ocean. Here we show that during boreal summer, …