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Sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to wind speed with implications for future projections

Some of the rainiest regions on Earth lie upstream of tropical mountains, where the interaction of prevailing winds with orography produces frequent precipitating convection. Yet, the response of tropical orographic precipitation to the large-scale …

Evaluating ensemble predictions of South Asian monsoon low pressure system genesis

Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. …

Meteorological Drivers of North American Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events

In this paper the meteorological drivers of North American Monsoon (NAM) extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are identified and analyzed. First, the NAM area and its subregions are distinguished using self-organizing maps applied to the Climate …

Elevation-dependent warming: observations, models, and energetic mechanisms

Observational data and numerical models suggest that, under climate change, elevated land surfaces warm faster than non-elevated ones. Proposed drivers of this “elevation-dependent warming” (EDW) include surface albedo and water vapour feedbacks, the …

Identifying Atmospheric Rivers and their Poleward Latent Heat Transport with Generalizable Neural Networks: ARCNNv1

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme weather events that can alleviate drought or cause billions of dollars in flood damage. By transporting significant amounts of latent energy towards the poles, they are crucial to maintaining the climate system’s …

Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance from the Current State of El Niño

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures (SST) by atmospheric convection and …

Understanding the spatio-temporal variability of tropical orographic rainfall using convective plume buoyancy

Mechanical forcing by orography affects precipitating convection across many tropical regions, but controls on the intensity and horizontal extent of the orographic precipitation peak and rain shadow remain poorly understood. A recent theory explains …

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior …

Emergence of the modern global monsoon from the Pangaea megamonsoon set by palaeogeography

Geologic evidence and palaeoclimate simulations have indicated the existence of an extensive, interconnected megamonsoon system over the Pangaea supercontinent. However, the ways in which subsequent continental break-up about 180 million years ago …

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to …